The Climate Change Debate Rages On

Hello again, fellow weather and climate enthusiasts. It has been awhile since you all have heard from me. I took a break from writing this summer, but as classes have started back up, so has my desire to continue this blog.

I may have taken a break but climate change sure hasn't!

There have been many terrifying, and awe-inspiring, weather events that occurred over the summer and are still raging on.

There was the EF5 tornado that killed 7 school children in the town of Moore, OK on May 20th.

"Homes damaged by Monday's tornado are shown Tuesday, May 21, 2013, in Moore, Okla. A huge tornado roared through the Oklahoma City suburb Monday, flattening entire neighborhoods and destroying an elementary school. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)"

Flooding was an ongoing issue this summer. The death toll from flash-flooding in Colorado is still rising. CNN reports that there are 6 people presumed dead and another 482 people still unaccounted for!!

A year's worth of rain totals in just one day!! Yikes!

There were horrific wildfires this summer as well. You might argue that fire is not a weather event.

However, sometimes weather is the start of these fires. A lightning strike can set dry brush or a tree on fire, thus sparking a spreading wildfire. Also, the weather plays a large role in how the fire spreads. The rainfall, or lack thereof, determines what kind of fuel the fire has and the winds can help drive the flames and make a bad situation worse.

I plan to cover the topic of how wildfires are a weather event in a future post.

As you can see, here in the States it has not been a quiet summer...

Now, on the heels of these events and with talks of what the winter will bring, the United Nations is about to release a report on climate change.

The New York Times had some interesting things to say about the report. The article,
A Climate Alarm, Too Muted for Some states that there are two fights brewing. 

1. "Mainstream science" believes that if we keep burning fossil fuels at this rate then the polar ice will keep melting. This means "the ocean could rise as much as three feet by the year 2100". There is some "outlier science" that believes the problem to be worse, with the rising waters possibly reaching five feet.

The argument: the report will use the lower number, as the "outlier science" was deemed not credible.

2. "Mainstream science" believes that when the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere doubles, which is very possible, the Earth's temperature will eventually rise at least 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, but more likely by 5 degrees. Now, the "outlier science" in this case believes that the temperature may rise to a number well below 3 degrees.

The argument: The report will use the lower number, as the "outlier science" was deemed credible.

Um? Wait... how is the extreme not credible in one case but credible in the other? Awfully convenient that the "credible" numbers are the conservative estimate in both scenarios.

The New York Times goes on to say that climate change skeptics usually accuse these periodic U.N. reports as using the skewed data to make the issue seem worse than it is. It seems this time the report is going to go the other way. Is it now too conservative?

The article does point out that we are not climatologists and that these two issues are vastly different. We need to rely on the scientists to interpret the data for us, even when the results don't make sense.

The group of scientists writing this report is one that I trust: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. They are Nobel Prize winners after all.

The Times also points out that the report isn't finished. The information about these two arguments came from a leaked draft of the report. The published report could read very differently.

I agree with journalist Justin Gillis when he writes, "Assuming these decisions withstand final review, it will be fascinating to hear the detailed explanations in Stockholm."

This issue is so complex and there are scientists on both extremes of the issue, and some in the middle. It is very hard to decide just where the truth lies.

At least it seems that we are all finally in agreement on one thing though: climate change is real and it is happening now.

Now if only we could firmly agree on why...

I'm not sure I even care about the predictions on how serious the effects will be. 

How about, instead of arguing over a few feet or degrees, we start focusing on how to STOP the oceans and the temperatures from rising?

I'm no scientist, but that sounds pretty important to me...

Adapting To Climate Change In Europe

For those of you who didn't know, I currently reside on the northeast coast of the United States. Because of that, the bulk of my posts deal with weather in the U.S. There have been a few posts where I ventured outside of my home country, like in When Lightning Strikes the Vatican and Earth Hour - Turn Off Your Lights!. Today, a recently published article in The Guardian caught my eye.

Painting by the Maltese artist Luciano Micallef.

The Guardian is a U.K. based news organization and Fiona Harvey is an environmental correspondent who writes for the site.

The article that caught my attention is Adapt faster to changing climate, Europe warned, written by Ms. Harvey. It has been awhile since I wrote about climate change, so I thought I would bring this article to your attention. It is interesting even if you don't live in Europe!

Remember when I talked about storm surge in Let's Talk Hurricanes...? Storm surges are the large waves of water forced up onto land by a  hurricane as it approaches from the sea. Shallow coastlines are particularly susceptible to damage as the water rushes up onto the shore and spreads out. Most coastal flooding is due to storm surge.


This article suggests that coastal areas in Europe should consider building more flood barriers to protect against storm surge. There is already one such barrier along the River Thames. This flood barrier is really quite remarkable!

There are sections of the gate across a part of the river. Some sections don't allow for water traffic to pass through them. Other sections have a gate that rests on the river bend and then rotates up to create a barrier in the river. These walls prevent water from rushing too far down the river and flooding London.




The UK Environment Agency also has a great video on their site that explains how the barrier works in more detail.

The European Environment Agency (EEA) is "a major information source for those involved in developing, adopting, implementing and evaluating environmental policy, and also the general public" that currently works with 32 countries. It has a site, partnered with the European Commission, called the European Climate Adaptation Platform (CLIMATE-ADAPT) and is all about helping Europe adapt to climate change. This is where the recent report about preparation and adaptation came from.

Like the U.S.'s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) the EEA has also acknowledged that effects of climate change can be seen and felt, and that adaptation is necessary.The EEA is also in agreement that there will be more and worse storms, flooding, droughts and so on. Already areas in southern Europe are seeing less rainfall and increased rainfall in areas of Northern Europe.

The average temperature has risen.

The building of more flood barriers is only one of many recommendations made by the agency. They also suggested changes to be made in agriculture (crops and farming methods) and policy. It also suggested other measures to be taken, like early warning systems.

There are also other areas in Europe with movable flood gates. The Netherlands has a series of storm barriers called the Delta Works, or Deltawerken.



















These barriers, and others that have already been built, weren't in response to climate change specifically, but they do represent a means of protection against some of the effects.

As you can see, the United States are not the only ones who are actively pursuing adaptation as a means of dealing with climate change. Sometimes we forget that other places in the world are going through the same difficulties as us.

Climate change doesn't care where you live, what religion you practice, or how much money you make. It is everywhere.

Climate change is global.

Different areas will have to make different changes but we will ALL need to adapt.

How To Handle A Hurricane

If you were adventurous and read my post, Let's Talk Hurricanes, then you already know quite a bit about them. What I didn't discuss was how to prepare for one and what to do during a storm. So, let's talk about that now, shall we?

The first thing to understand is the difference between a hurricane watch and a hurricane warning. The American Red Cross explains that a hurricane watch means that within 48 hours meteorologists expect hurricane conditions to reach that area. Once that time period becomes 36 hours, until hurricane conditions arrive, the watch becomes a warning.

The National Weather Service tells us that a watch means we should 'be on guard'! Keep an eye on the weather reports, go over your emergency plans with your family, and get ready! Then the warning means "this is it, get ready 'cause here it comes"!

There is plenty to do to prepare before any hurricane watches or warnings. Like I have mentioned in my other posts about preparing for bad weather, How To Prepare For Tornado Season and Flooding - It Could Happen To You, it is essential that your household have a family communications plan and an emergency kit. Ready.gov, a preparation and information site managed by FEMA, can walk you through creating your own kit and developing your communications plan.

There are three main areas we are going to focus on in this post: preparing for the storm, what to do during the storm, and recovering from the storm. I gathered information from three sources to present to you: American Red Cross, National Hurricane Center/NOAA, and Ready.gov/FEMA.

Before a storm

• Develop a family communications plan.
• Build your emergency kit.
• Find out if your home is in an area that is vulnerable to wind, flood, and/or storm surge.
• Find out if there are any levees or dams that could affect your residence.
• Be prepared to have to cover your windows. This may mean installing storm shutters or just having plywood on hand to cover the windows. Tape will not prevent your windows from breaking! 
• Consider installing straps to your roof! Let EHow.com walk you through it!
• Trimming trees and bushes around the house will make them more wind resistant, and take off dead or dying limbs that may come down during high winds.
• Make sure rain gutters and downspouts are clear!
• Consider reinforcing your garage door. Wind inside a garage can do some expensive structural damage!
• Make sure you have a place to bring in any outdoor items, such as patio furniture and garbage cans. Anything that can't be secured outside must come inside!
• Consider purchasing a generator.

Storm is coming!

• Listen for updates and information from the National Weather Service & FOLLOW ALL INSTRUCTIONS GIVEN!
• Secure items outside and bring in anything that cannot be tied down.
• Close hurricane shutters and doors, or place plywood over the windows and doors.
• In case the power goes out, turn your refrigerator and freezer all the way up and try to open them as little as possible. This way, if the power does go out, your food will stay cooler for longer.
• Make sure your car's gas tank is full.
• Unplug all the small appliances and shut off the propane tank, if you have one.
• Fill the bath tub and other containers with water, so that you have water to flush the toilet, or to wash with.
• Review your communications plan, and ready your emergency kit!
• Consider evacuation if:
• the authorities tell you to leave the area.
• you live in a mobile home, or other unstable structure.
• you live above the 10th floor of a building.
• you live in an area prone to flooding, such as the coast or a flood plain.

Storm is here!

• If you didn't evacuate:
• Stay inside and away from windows and doors!
• Close the doors INSIDE your home!
• Like with a tornado, stay in an interior room on the lowest floor of the home and take cover under a sturdy object like a table.
• Try not to use your phone, unless it's an emergency, of course.
• Be on the alert for tornadoes. As we learned in my post, Let's Talk Hurricanes..., the spiral rain bands can spawn tornadoes.
• Don't be fooled by the eye of the storm! It may seem like it's over, but it's not. Once the eye passes the hurricane winds will come back at full force!

After the storm

• Keep listening, or watching, for weather reports and updates.
• Be on the alert for possible flooding even after the storm has passed.
• If you evacuated, don't return until an official has told you it is safe to do so.
• Try to stay off the roads, but if you must drive go slow and avoid flooded or washed out roads and bridges.
• Keep a look out for downed power lines. If spotted, stay away from them and report them to the power company.
• Take pictures of any damages to your home or belongings, for insurance purposes.
• If the power is out use flashlights, DO NOT USE CANDLES. (This is a new one for me! We always lit candles when I was a kid, but then again we had bad snowstorms, not hurricanes.)
• Don't drink the water until you know that it is safe.
• Throw out any spoiled food, and remember, better safe than sorry. Trust me, not much is worse than food poisoning!
• Again, stay off the phone.
• Make sure you be careful, and protect your pets!

Feel free to check out all three websites that I used, for more information. Hurricane season is coming, so we might as well start getting ready!

Thanks for reading and be safe!

Flooding in the Last Five Years: 2010

About a week ago I put up the first post in a series of five about flooding. That one was titled Flooding in the Last Five Years: 2009 and recapped the major flooding events that year. I also gave the total cost of damages and lives lost do to flooding. There were about 8 major events, with 51 deaths and just over a billion in damages that year.

Now, let's take a look at what the year 2010 brought us, in terms of flooding. I am pulling information from a yearly report provided by The National Weather Service/NOAA. There you can find more information about the year and each of the events.

2010

• March: Flooding in much of the Northeast due to an early thaw. First, in parts of New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts the snow melted right before a large rain storm. This over saturation caused flooding. Then a couple weeks later the snow in New Hampshire and Vermont melted, this added more water to already swollen rivers in Massachusetts. This month saw some serious flooding, especially in New Jersey's Passaic River Basin.
  
  The damages for the month totaled $330 million over the four states. Amazingly, there were no flood-related deaths.

• May: Heavy rainfall causes flooding in Tennessee and Kentucky. Rainfall records were broken, and many rivers also rose to record heights. This flooding cost $2.3 BILLION and 26 lives were lost.

A tanker truck is pushed against trees after being washed away, 

Sunday, May 2, 2010 in Nashville, Tenn.

 (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

Businesses in downtown Nashville, Tenn.,

are surrounded by floodwater Monday, May 3, 2010.

(AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

• June: Flash flooding due to storms in Texas and Arkansas. This flooding caused towns to be evacuated in Texas. In Arkansas, campers by the Little Missouri River were wakened by flash flooding. This was another deadly event with 20 deaths and 26 people injured. This storm cost $9 million in damages.
  
  
  A second flooding event occurred in June, when a storm dumped heavy rains on Oklahoma City. The timing of the storm during and right before rush hour caused many vehicles to become stuck in the waters. There were 130 injuries, one death and and about $6 million in damages.

Tossed By Flash Flood 

Photograph by Mike Stone, Reuters

Search for Flood Survivors

Photograph by Sue Ogrocki, AP

• July: The first of four flood events this month was in Alaska. Flooding from a storm caused washouts and mudslides. In Alaska, flash floods are rare, but they did occur with this storm. One person lost his or her life. The report did not list the amount of damages associated with this particular event.
  
  The second episode of flooding occurred in Iowa. Technically, the event started in June with many heavy rain storms. So, in late July, the ground couldn't hold any more water and the next round of storms caused flooding. This severely damaged the corn and soybean crop. There were no deaths or serious injuries reported, but there was about $50 million in property damages and an estimated $1 billion in agricultural damage.

Then, in Wisconsin, again the rains in June set up the scenario where the rains in July couldn't be absorbed, leading to flooding there as well. There was one death reported and about $27.7 million in damages.

The fourth notable flood event in July occurred in Texas along the Rio Grande. It started with the remnants of Hurricane Alex, and then Tropical Depression #2 pushed the river over the edge. The flooding lasted for about the entire month of July! The President declared many counties in the Rio Grande Valley as areas of Major Disaster. There were three deaths and over $110 million in damages.

KXAN - Jim Spencer/blog

• September: Flooding in Texas and Oklahoma occurred due to Tropical Storm Hermine. There was $29 million in damages and six deaths.

• September/October: Remnants of Tropical Storm Nicole met up with a low front, which led to intense rainfall and flooding along the Eastern Seaboard. It affected North Carolina's mainland and Outer Banks, the Catskills of New York, and parts of Pennsylvania. This storm also caused damage to crops, so the totals were $20 million in property damages, $70 million in agricultural damages and seven fatalities.

Well, looks like another bad year for flooding! Unlike 2009, we saw some serious flooding due to tropical storms.

So let's review the totals! Using the same chart as in the last post, provided in the report by the NWS, there were a total of 112 flood-related deaths and $5,041,227 in damages.

The amount in damages in 2010 was over 5 times the amount in 2009! And, over double the amount of fatalities!

Yikes!

Next in this series of posts we will examine 2011 in this same format. I know 2011 saw Hurricane Irene...

Then there was Hurricane Sandy in 2012, but Water Year 2012  runs October 1st 2011-September 30th
2012, so Hurricane Sandy will actually be included in the 2013 Water Year evaluation.

Looking ahead makes me think that these numbers are going to get worse, before they get better.

So, stay tuned for the third post in this five-part series about Flooding the the Last Five Years.

Flooding in the Last Five Years: 2009

With the recent flooding in the Midwest, I thought it would be interesting to look at flooding in the United States over the last five years. I did some research into different areas that flooded, how badly, and how much did it cost. At first I was going to put all five years into one post, but it was turning out to be longer than I thought! I have decided to run this topic over a few postings. Here is the first.

2009

• January: Two feet of snow fell in the Cascade Mountains. This storm caused flooding and the damage led to more flooding from a rain storm later in the month. There was a total of about $68 million in damages and no deaths.

Flooded homes, fields, and roads are shown from the air Thursday, Jan. 8, 2009 near Chehalis, Wash.

• March - April: The Red River in Manitoba (Canada), North Dakota and Minnesota flooded. This was due to heavy storms raining on ground that was already soaked by the melting snow. About $55 million in damages. No deaths were reported.

Elsie, one of two Stensgard family dogs, sands on the earthen and sandbag dike surrounding the Stensgard home, not pictured, which overlooks a flooded outbuilding as the Red River continues to rise, Wednesday, March 25, 2009 in Fargo, N.D. Due to the flooding, the Stensgard home can only be reached by boat. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

• April: Flooding in the Red River Valley in Oklahoma and Texas, due to a large storm system. Flash flooding also occurred in Kansas and Missouri because of thunderstorms. About $42.9 million in damages and five lives lost.

Flooding in Claremore May 1, 2009 (Courtesy of KJRH.com, Randy Lane)

• May: Flood in Alaska due to ice jam. As the snow and ice from the winter melts pieces of ice break off and float down stream. They can jam together and block the waterway, leading to flooding in the area. A large jam caused "the worst flooding in recorded history" on the Yukon River in Eagle, Alaska. There were no deaths and about $29 million in damages.

Yukon River flood damage, May 2009. The river rose to 20 feet above flood level. Downtown Eagle waterfront looking East. Uploaded by AlaskaMark

• June: Flash flooding in Wisconsin was caused by a band of thunderstorms. Each storm dumped a large amount of water in a short period of time. There was about 25.6 million in damages and no flood-related deaths.

A second flood event occurred in Michigan. Flash flooding due to storms caused 41.3 million more in damages. No deaths occurred due to this event either. 

• August: There was flooding due to heavy rains in Kentucky and part of Indiana. Luckily, there were no lives lost, but there was about $45.3 million in damages. The rate of rainfall was amazing; "rainfall rates up to 8.8 inches per hour were reported"!

FLOODING NEAR KENTUCKY KINGDOM (PHOTO COURTESY TIPSTER)

• September: A large storm system across parts of Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, South and North Carolina stalled and rained for days. This was by far the worst flooding of the year, with 11 deaths and over $250 million in damages.

These were just the worst flood events of the year. The National Weather Service reported that the total deaths and damages were much higher than the totals of the numbers above. There is a chart in the NWS report that includes deaths and damages in all 50 states, plus Washington D.C., Guam, Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands, and America Samoa. The total number of lives lost due to flood in 2009 was 51 and the damages totaled just over a billion at $1,000,026.

This seems like a lot to me! Maybe this was a bad year for floods... or maybe this is the norm?

Next time I will look the major floods and total damages in 2010. Then for the next year and so on...

By the end of this series of posts, I think we will have a better idea of the flood trends that are happening currently. And, we may then better understand the risk of flooding in our country, and the damages it causes us.

Thanks for reading and stay tuned for the second installment, Flooding in the Last Five Years: 2010.

Flooding - It Could Happen To You

Let's talk flood protection. Once again I headed on over to FEMA. In case you didn't know, FEMA stands for Federal Emergency Management Agency. I find this agency's website to be very helpful, the information is relevant and  (in my opinion) trustworthy.

Ready.gov is the FEMA site that provides information on how to prepare for multiple disasters and events, like floods.

You may think that you don't need to read this post or prepare for a flood because you have never flooded before.

Wrong.

Flooding can happen to anyone, anywhere. Even if you don't want to take all the steps I am going to go through in this post, it is good to at least be aware of the possibility.

The first thing is to make sure you have an emergency kit and plan. I discussed this in my post How To Prepare For Tornado Season. Ready.gov walks you through how to develop and maintain your kit here. Then you can go here to work on your emergency plan!

This is a good reminder for those of you who meant to do this after reading my other post. Don't feel bad, I still haven't done it either! I will though, because I really do think it is important.

It is also important to understand the risk of flooding in your area. This can be done by reviewing a Flood Insurance Rate Map of your area.

Well, checking the map didn't work very well for me! I checked the area where I live now and was told "sorry there are no items to display for this State, County and Community. Please check the Future or Historic Maps for available panels."

Ah, then I saw further down on the FEMA site that they are changing the maps. Going digital, Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map (DFIRM).

These maps are important not just because they tell you your risk, but because they also tell you how much flood insurance will cost you. These new maps may change the cost of your flood insurance. If you already have insurance you may want to check with your agent to see if you are on the new one, or the old. When considering flood insurance for the first time, ask if there is a DFIRM for your area.

My town map isn't available in the new map catalog either. "Enter your Zip Code to see all of the communities in your county that have maps scheduled to be updated. Even if your community is not listed, changes may still be in progress." Perhaps that is the case for my town...

Well checking these maps turned out to be difficult for me! Hopefully, some of you will have better luck. If not, my suggestion would be calling a flood insurance agent and discussing the risk to your area. You don't have to buy, just become informed.

These are the other preparations that FEMA suggests:

• Avoid building in a floodplain unless you elevate and reinforce your home.

• Elevate the furnace, water heater and electric panel in your home if you live in an area that has a high flood risk.

• Consider installing "check valves" to prevent flood water from backing up into the drains of your home.

• If feasible, construct barriers to stop floodwater from entering the building and seal walls in basements with waterproofing compounds.

According to Friends of the River a floodplain is the low flat area along a river that can flood periodically. Unfortunately, this area while not flooded is a pretty enticing area to build or farm on. However, this is an area that can and will flood. When the river becomes too high, it will expand into the floodplain.

If you do decide to build on a floodplain, make sure you plan ahead and build appropriately.

WiseGeek explains that a check valve makes it so that water can only travel in one direction. It is also called a one way valve or a nonreturn valve, and works in a couple different ways. The most common being a ball valve.

I found a "Flood Guard for Floor Drains" on PlumbingSupply.com.

The company has a wide range of products from water damage prevention to FloodStop systems. I have never ordered products from this company. If you have, I would love to hear what you thought about the company and their products!

Have you used any flood prevention products in your home or business? Built any barriers, or taken any steps to protect against flooding?

Please feel free to share your experiences in the comments section.

I'd love to hear about problems you have had with flooding and what you learned. What you went through may help someone else. That person might even be me someday!

The 100 Year Flood

With the intense storms and flooding that have been experienced lately people are talking more about 100 year events. There are other number events too, such as 10 year, 50 year, and 500 year events. These events can be floods or storms, like a 100 year flood.

I first heard these terms a couple years ago while taking an emergency management course. We were talking about flooding at the time. We learned in class that the number, 100, 50, etc, actually refers to the statistical chance that the event will occur every year. So, a 100 year flood means that every year there is a 1 in a hundred, or 1%, chance that a large scale flooding event will occur. If there is a 1 in a hundred chance that the flood might occur, then one should happen about every 100 years. I found a great image, see below, that helps illustrate the water levels and occurrences of the different events.

Ohio Department of Natural Resources

According to FEMA in their handout titled The 100 Year Flood Myth all different levels of flooding occur and can come with their own label. Lesser floods will most likely occur more often and be labeled 1 year floods or 5 year floods. As the floods grow in intensity the likely-hood of them occurring decreases. So, a 50 year flood won't be as bad as a 100 year flood but is twice as likely to occur. However, the handout points out that floods occurring every couple years, or even every ten years, will end up doing more damage then a flood that occurs only once every 100 years.

The other interesting point made in the handout is that the term 100 year flood is being used more frequently than it should. Not every flood is a 100 year flood! The term sounds good, and catches peoples attention, so the press like to use it. It may seem like 100 year floods are occurring more than they should, but that is most likely due to the floods being mislabeled.

By using the term “100 year flood” inaccurately to describe
floods that are actually much lesser floods, the misconception is
spread that 100 year floods are occurring every few years! In
fact, floods close to this are occurring, but they are only 5 or 10
year events that look so similar to the “big one” that they get
labeled with the same name. This misapplication of the 100 year
term leads to misplaced criticism of the analysis that produced it
and of those engineers who generated it.

Floods are very important to understand, as they can cause a lot of damage. I know people who live by me don't expect flooding and are not prepared for it. I certainly am not. 

When Hurricane Sandy hit New Jersey and New York we were horrified, and still are, at the devastation that the flood waters caused.

PHOTOS: Hurricane Sandy Wipes Out Seaside Heights

Here's The Jersey Shore Devastation That Made
Chris Christie Get So Emotional

I remember seeing the damage that Hurricane Irene caused in Vermont. It was horrible. 

Who would have imagined that flooding in Vermont? 

Massive snowstorms, sure. 

Ice storms... remember the Ice Storm of '98? 

I sure do. But flooding? 

From Waterbury to Wilmington,
Vermonters shocked by Irene's destruction

Photos from The Republican

Flooding always seemed an event reserved for people living by the Mississippi River, in Florida, or New Orleans. The Northeast sure got a rude awakening. 

With climate change leading to more intense storms, will there end up being an adjustment to the 100 year floods?

It is definitely something worth watching.

There is a lot more to discuss about flood waters and flood safety. I might even take a look at flood insurance. So check back soon for more information on this topic!