The Climate Change Debate Rages On

Hello again, fellow weather and climate enthusiasts. It has been awhile since you all have heard from me. I took a break from writing this summer, but as classes have started back up, so has my desire to continue this blog.

I may have taken a break but climate change sure hasn't!

There have been many terrifying, and awe-inspiring, weather events that occurred over the summer and are still raging on.

There was the EF5 tornado that killed 7 school children in the town of Moore, OK on May 20th.

"Homes damaged by Monday's tornado are shown Tuesday, May 21, 2013, in Moore, Okla. A huge tornado roared through the Oklahoma City suburb Monday, flattening entire neighborhoods and destroying an elementary school. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)"

Flooding was an ongoing issue this summer. The death toll from flash-flooding in Colorado is still rising. CNN reports that there are 6 people presumed dead and another 482 people still unaccounted for!!

A year's worth of rain totals in just one day!! Yikes!

There were horrific wildfires this summer as well. You might argue that fire is not a weather event.

However, sometimes weather is the start of these fires. A lightning strike can set dry brush or a tree on fire, thus sparking a spreading wildfire. Also, the weather plays a large role in how the fire spreads. The rainfall, or lack thereof, determines what kind of fuel the fire has and the winds can help drive the flames and make a bad situation worse.

I plan to cover the topic of how wildfires are a weather event in a future post.

As you can see, here in the States it has not been a quiet summer...

Now, on the heels of these events and with talks of what the winter will bring, the United Nations is about to release a report on climate change.

The New York Times had some interesting things to say about the report. The article,
A Climate Alarm, Too Muted for Some states that there are two fights brewing. 

1. "Mainstream science" believes that if we keep burning fossil fuels at this rate then the polar ice will keep melting. This means "the ocean could rise as much as three feet by the year 2100". There is some "outlier science" that believes the problem to be worse, with the rising waters possibly reaching five feet.

The argument: the report will use the lower number, as the "outlier science" was deemed not credible.

2. "Mainstream science" believes that when the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere doubles, which is very possible, the Earth's temperature will eventually rise at least 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, but more likely by 5 degrees. Now, the "outlier science" in this case believes that the temperature may rise to a number well below 3 degrees.

The argument: The report will use the lower number, as the "outlier science" was deemed credible.

Um? Wait... how is the extreme not credible in one case but credible in the other? Awfully convenient that the "credible" numbers are the conservative estimate in both scenarios.

The New York Times goes on to say that climate change skeptics usually accuse these periodic U.N. reports as using the skewed data to make the issue seem worse than it is. It seems this time the report is going to go the other way. Is it now too conservative?

The article does point out that we are not climatologists and that these two issues are vastly different. We need to rely on the scientists to interpret the data for us, even when the results don't make sense.

The group of scientists writing this report is one that I trust: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. They are Nobel Prize winners after all.

The Times also points out that the report isn't finished. The information about these two arguments came from a leaked draft of the report. The published report could read very differently.

I agree with journalist Justin Gillis when he writes, "Assuming these decisions withstand final review, it will be fascinating to hear the detailed explanations in Stockholm."

This issue is so complex and there are scientists on both extremes of the issue, and some in the middle. It is very hard to decide just where the truth lies.

At least it seems that we are all finally in agreement on one thing though: climate change is real and it is happening now.

Now if only we could firmly agree on why...

I'm not sure I even care about the predictions on how serious the effects will be. 

How about, instead of arguing over a few feet or degrees, we start focusing on how to STOP the oceans and the temperatures from rising?

I'm no scientist, but that sounds pretty important to me...

Adapting To Climate Change In Europe

For those of you who didn't know, I currently reside on the northeast coast of the United States. Because of that, the bulk of my posts deal with weather in the U.S. There have been a few posts where I ventured outside of my home country, like in When Lightning Strikes the Vatican and Earth Hour - Turn Off Your Lights!. Today, a recently published article in The Guardian caught my eye.

Painting by the Maltese artist Luciano Micallef.

The Guardian is a U.K. based news organization and Fiona Harvey is an environmental correspondent who writes for the site.

The article that caught my attention is Adapt faster to changing climate, Europe warned, written by Ms. Harvey. It has been awhile since I wrote about climate change, so I thought I would bring this article to your attention. It is interesting even if you don't live in Europe!

Remember when I talked about storm surge in Let's Talk Hurricanes...? Storm surges are the large waves of water forced up onto land by a  hurricane as it approaches from the sea. Shallow coastlines are particularly susceptible to damage as the water rushes up onto the shore and spreads out. Most coastal flooding is due to storm surge.


This article suggests that coastal areas in Europe should consider building more flood barriers to protect against storm surge. There is already one such barrier along the River Thames. This flood barrier is really quite remarkable!

There are sections of the gate across a part of the river. Some sections don't allow for water traffic to pass through them. Other sections have a gate that rests on the river bend and then rotates up to create a barrier in the river. These walls prevent water from rushing too far down the river and flooding London.




The UK Environment Agency also has a great video on their site that explains how the barrier works in more detail.

The European Environment Agency (EEA) is "a major information source for those involved in developing, adopting, implementing and evaluating environmental policy, and also the general public" that currently works with 32 countries. It has a site, partnered with the European Commission, called the European Climate Adaptation Platform (CLIMATE-ADAPT) and is all about helping Europe adapt to climate change. This is where the recent report about preparation and adaptation came from.

Like the U.S.'s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) the EEA has also acknowledged that effects of climate change can be seen and felt, and that adaptation is necessary.The EEA is also in agreement that there will be more and worse storms, flooding, droughts and so on. Already areas in southern Europe are seeing less rainfall and increased rainfall in areas of Northern Europe.

The average temperature has risen.

The building of more flood barriers is only one of many recommendations made by the agency. They also suggested changes to be made in agriculture (crops and farming methods) and policy. It also suggested other measures to be taken, like early warning systems.

There are also other areas in Europe with movable flood gates. The Netherlands has a series of storm barriers called the Delta Works, or Deltawerken.



















These barriers, and others that have already been built, weren't in response to climate change specifically, but they do represent a means of protection against some of the effects.

As you can see, the United States are not the only ones who are actively pursuing adaptation as a means of dealing with climate change. Sometimes we forget that other places in the world are going through the same difficulties as us.

Climate change doesn't care where you live, what religion you practice, or how much money you make. It is everywhere.

Climate change is global.

Different areas will have to make different changes but we will ALL need to adapt.

Interview With a Warning & Coordination Meteorologist

We have been talking for a few months now about weather events and climate issues. I feel like I have learned quite a bit, and hopefully you have too.

I thought it would be interesting to reach out and interview someone who actually works in the field of meteorology.

With help from my mentor Dr. Lance Strate and his colleague Dr. Susan Jasko I was put in touch with Warning & Coordination Meteorologist, Mr. Mark Fox.

Nyssa: First, please tell us a little about yourself. Where are you from, what is your background, and so forth?

Mark: I grew up in Oklahoma, and developed a fascination with tornadoes pretty early. I saw my first tornado when I was 9, as a F3 tornado moved through my hometown of Stillwater, Oklahoma. We lived on a hill west of town and saw the entire thing. Since then, I've been hooked.

I got a degree in meteorology from the University of Oklahoma in 1989. That same year, I began as a broadcast meteorologist. Worked in TV for about ten years, and started with the National Weather Service in 1999. 






Nyssa: So, where do you currently work and what is your position there?

Mark: I am currently the Warning & Coordination Meteorologist for the Weather Forecast Office (WFO) in Fort Worth, TX.

Nyssa: What is a typical day like for a Warning & Coordination Meteorologist? 

Mark: Ha! What is typical? Most days, I am getting ready for events in the future. I’m getting ready by meeting with our partners (Emergency Management, Media, elected officials) or spotter groups. During severe weather, I spend most of my time communicating the forecast that our office produces. That means gathering my opinions about what will happen, making sure I am on the same page as our forecasters and then communicating early and often with our partners. I’m not necessarily the one that sends the warnings, but on occasion, I am.

Nyssa:  How did you end up becoming the Warning & Coordination Meteorologist? 

Mark: Good question. I started at this office (Fort Worth) as a non-traditional meteorologist intern in 1999. I worked here for about two years before getting a general forecaster position in Amarillo, TX. While there, I worked with two of the best meteorologists (and people) you would ever hope to work for, Jose Garcia and Steve Drillette. They both mentored me, helped me to understand that meteorology is only the beginning; lives are saved based on actions taken after the warning is issued. Since that time, I've been working on how to better communicate risk information. That work led to a promotion to a senior forecaster at WFO Lubbock, then to the Regional Training Officer for the Southern Region of the National Weather Service. I started this position in August of 2009.

Nyssa: It's great that you had such positive influences; mentors can play a big role in our lives. Tell us, what is the most difficult part of your job?

Mark: Let’s just say there are meteorologists in all fields that believe that forecasters should write the forecast and nothing more. Trying to convince people with this mindset to change can be difficult.

Nyssa: That does sound frustrating! So, what part do you find the most enjoyable?

Mark: Without a doubt, helping people make good decisions based on our forecasts.

Nyssa: I was wondering, what do you think has been a big leap forward in the field of risk communication?




Mark: The big leap, in my opinion, is social media. You used to get weather information from us, or more likely from TV. You can still get that, but now you can also get the weather information from friends, family, and friends of friends. This can have a negative impact, but the more personal the threat becomes, the more likely people are going to act. (which is good)

Nyssa: Can you expand a little on the role of social media in your field?

Mark: Four years ago, social media had no role. Today, social media is a large part in what we do. Four years from now, who knows what will be next. We have to be ready.

Nyssa: What do you see for the future of storm warnings?

Mark: Storm warnings have to get more personal, and I think social media will play an increasing role. Years ago, we heard nothing until the warning was out. And then we heard nothing until the official update. Now, we hear about the storm forecast. We hear about the clouds developing. We hear about the rain and hail beginning. We hear about the hail getting bigger. We hear the warning. We then hear where the storm is. (etc.) In other words, the information around the official storm warning can be more important than the actual warning itself.

Nyssa: I too have noticed that the coverage of weather events has gotten more extensive. By me, Hurricane Irene and Sandy were on almost every channel for days. Do you think this extreme coverage is a positive for people? Or, do you feel that it is becoming too sensationalized?

Mark: How did you respond the first time you ever heard a car alarm going off? Do you even notice if a car alarm goes off now? The more we ramp up forecasts and warnings and nothing happens, that has a negative impact on people. We need to get it right, but we also need to communicate the threat more effectively.

Nyssa: That being said, what do you think is the most important thing that the public should understand about storm warnings?

Mark: Bad storms happen to good people. Storms do not discriminate, so you have to be ready. A lot of folks think bad storms happen to “other people” and not themselves. Complacency is a huge issue. Think about how many storm warnings you were in… and nothing happened? That can be a false sense of security.

Nyssa: I am going to change the topic for a minute. Climate change is an issue that I have discussed in a few of my posts. What is your stance on climate change?

Mark: The data suggests the climate has been changing. The question then becomes what is causing it? Is it natural? Has it happened before? All too often, it becomes a political argument, and that’s an argument as a scientist I’d like to stay away from.

Nyssa: I completely understand, it has become a hard issue for non-scientists to follow, I feel because of the politics. It's hard to know what is going on with all the conflicting information. So, getting back to your area of expertise, what wisdom or tip would you give to a student interested in working in the field of meteorology?

Mark: You will be wrong. Take your work seriously. Don’t take yourself too seriously.

Nyssa: Great advice for anyone! And one last thought to leave us with?

Mark: Bad storms are a matter of when…not if.

Nyssa: Thank you so much for taking the time to talk with me. I really appreciate it as this interview has been very interesting. I definitely think my readers and I have learned a few things, and I know I enjoyed the interview. Good luck in all your future endeavors, and let's hope for calm weather this summer!

The Story of the Carbon Cycle

In honor of Earth Day I thought today I would tell you the story of the carbon cycle.

Many many many years ago, back to the time of the dinosaurs. Wait, go even farther back than that! Volcanoes were erupting and sending carbon dioxide (CO₂) into the air. It was launched way up into the atmosphere, and there it stayed.




It was just floating along when all of a sudden it started to rain! All these drops of water started to fall from the sky and the CO₂ thought that looked like great fun!

So, CO₂ decided to hitch a ride with one of the raindrops. As they plummeted together toward the ground, the water and the CO₂ decided to become best friends forever. They called themselves carbonic acid.




They weren't a very strong acid, but they sure did know how to party with the rocks! The stones that the carbonic acid landed on were glad for the new company and reacted by releasing carbon. The carbon from the carbonic acid rock party washed gently into the ocean. There it meet other carbon that had eventually found its way to the ocean too. Some carbon took a longer route to get there, but all carbon ends up in the sea!

Our carbon had seen how much fun the water, CO₂, and rocks had together and wanted a friend of its own!

Unfortunately, the carbon started acting out and upset some nearby plankton. The plankton decided it was best to lock the carbon up in it's shell so it wouldn't cause anymore trouble.

The carbon and the plankton lived together until the end of the plankton's life. When the plankton died it drifted to the bottom of the ocean and eventually became a rock. The carbon now found itself back inside the Earth.




Another CO₂, cousin to our first friend, found the temperature becoming warmer and warmer and all her friends were joining up with rain droplets. She watched as more and more carbonic acid dropped down and made the rocks release more carbon. As it grew hotter she started to get worried.

But then the plants started to grow and grow. They liked the rain, the warm temperatures, and our friend CO₂. This little CO₂ decided that the party life wasn't for her and joined up with a plant instead. The plant pulled her in and placed the carbon into the soil, back to the ground where she started.








The temperature started to even back out again as the amount of carbon in the air was brought back into balance.

Every now and then something would happen that would make the Earth cooler or warmer, but eventually the carbons working with the rocks and the plants would balance out the climate.

Well, until man arrived and started to invent new and amazing things.

Most of the carbon ended up in the ground in forms that man learned to use, like oil, coal, and natural gas.

All of a sudden, carbon that had slept for thousands of years was waking up!

Carbon had slept for so long in a rock at the bottom of the ocean, but what was that noise?! The carbon that had gone into the ocean floor because of plankton was now being drilled back up!

His cousin had ended up as coal deep in the ground and had slept soundly too, but now she was being dug up as well!

As the coal was burned and the oil was burned, our cousin carbons were released back up into the air! Along with their other cousin carbons that hadn't been up there for centuries!

As they gathered together they remembered the fun they had all those years ago, and again joined up with water. It came raining back down as carbonic acid and the cycled continued as it had all these years. Except now there was more carbon being released by man and less trees and vegetation to pull the carbon back into the ground. Man threw more and more carbon up into the sky, not considering what it might do to the delicate balancing act billions of years in the making.

It's getting warmer. 

Earth will be alright, she will make it through this carbon party and eventually balance herself back out.

The question is, can we adapt to the changes we are causing? Can we survive long enough to see the climate come back to its balanced state?

I hope so.



(This story was written using information gathered from The Weather of the Future by Dr. Heidi Cullen. This information can be found in Chapter 2: Seeing Climate Change in Our Past on pages 23-25.)

The 100 Year Flood

With the intense storms and flooding that have been experienced lately people are talking more about 100 year events. There are other number events too, such as 10 year, 50 year, and 500 year events. These events can be floods or storms, like a 100 year flood.

I first heard these terms a couple years ago while taking an emergency management course. We were talking about flooding at the time. We learned in class that the number, 100, 50, etc, actually refers to the statistical chance that the event will occur every year. So, a 100 year flood means that every year there is a 1 in a hundred, or 1%, chance that a large scale flooding event will occur. If there is a 1 in a hundred chance that the flood might occur, then one should happen about every 100 years. I found a great image, see below, that helps illustrate the water levels and occurrences of the different events.

Ohio Department of Natural Resources

According to FEMA in their handout titled The 100 Year Flood Myth all different levels of flooding occur and can come with their own label. Lesser floods will most likely occur more often and be labeled 1 year floods or 5 year floods. As the floods grow in intensity the likely-hood of them occurring decreases. So, a 50 year flood won't be as bad as a 100 year flood but is twice as likely to occur. However, the handout points out that floods occurring every couple years, or even every ten years, will end up doing more damage then a flood that occurs only once every 100 years.

The other interesting point made in the handout is that the term 100 year flood is being used more frequently than it should. Not every flood is a 100 year flood! The term sounds good, and catches peoples attention, so the press like to use it. It may seem like 100 year floods are occurring more than they should, but that is most likely due to the floods being mislabeled.

By using the term “100 year flood” inaccurately to describe
floods that are actually much lesser floods, the misconception is
spread that 100 year floods are occurring every few years! In
fact, floods close to this are occurring, but they are only 5 or 10
year events that look so similar to the “big one” that they get
labeled with the same name. This misapplication of the 100 year
term leads to misplaced criticism of the analysis that produced it
and of those engineers who generated it.

Floods are very important to understand, as they can cause a lot of damage. I know people who live by me don't expect flooding and are not prepared for it. I certainly am not. 

When Hurricane Sandy hit New Jersey and New York we were horrified, and still are, at the devastation that the flood waters caused.

PHOTOS: Hurricane Sandy Wipes Out Seaside Heights

Here's The Jersey Shore Devastation That Made
Chris Christie Get So Emotional

I remember seeing the damage that Hurricane Irene caused in Vermont. It was horrible. 

Who would have imagined that flooding in Vermont? 

Massive snowstorms, sure. 

Ice storms... remember the Ice Storm of '98? 

I sure do. But flooding? 

From Waterbury to Wilmington,
Vermonters shocked by Irene's destruction

Photos from The Republican

Flooding always seemed an event reserved for people living by the Mississippi River, in Florida, or New Orleans. The Northeast sure got a rude awakening. 

With climate change leading to more intense storms, will there end up being an adjustment to the 100 year floods?

It is definitely something worth watching.

There is a lot more to discuss about flood waters and flood safety. I might even take a look at flood insurance. So check back soon for more information on this topic!

Making Some Sense of the Melting Arctic

When deciding what I want to blog about, gathering research, or when just in the mood to read about weather and climate, I often find myself gravitating toward other weather blogs. I tend to read blogs posted on weather sites such as Accuweather, Wunderground, and ClimateCentral. These sites have blogs and posts written by multiple weather and climate experts.

I was exploring various blogs when I found this post by Angela Fritz, New Images of the 2013 Arctic Sea Ice Mega-Fracture. Fritz is an atmospheric scientist for Wunderground, and has a blog on the Wunderground site.

Her post on March, 29th 2013 contains some great pictures and video of a large fracture in the Arctic ice. According to Fritz this large fracture occurred because the Arctic ice is thinning and becoming a lot more fragile. Then the weather in the last two months was putting pressure on the ice from the land, pushing it into the ocean. Thicker, more stable ice wouldn't have been affected, but today's ice couldn't withstand the pressure and broke.

Andrew Freedman and Michael D. Lemonick also discuss this fracture and Arctic ice in their post Arctic Ice Hits Annual Max and it’s 6th Lowest on Record. They have one of the same animations that Fritz has in her post, and discuss the topic at length.

This article is great because it goes on to explain why the arctic is warming faster than other areas of the world. It's a feedback cycle called Arctic Amplification. The white snow and ice reflects the sun's rays back up into the air. But now, with the ice melting, the darker colored water appears and instead of reflecting the rays it absorbs them. This heats the water, which in turn melts more ice! The cycle then continues with more and more ice melting, and the warmer waters starting to affect weather all over the world.

NBC News' John Roach published a great article titled Arctic change reverberates around globe, experts say. In the article he explains how the warming air can create such cold temperatures in some areas of the world. For awhile now, I didn't really understand how we could still have such cold temperatures when the climate was warming. Last year seemed to fit with my expectations, but this past winter was pretty cold!

Roach explains that when the ocean releases this warmth into the air, it affects the jetstream.

In particular, he and colleagues hypothesize that the warming Arctic causes the jetsteam to slow down and meander like a river flowing through the plains. This, in turn, transports less warm air over the lands from the oceans.

We saw this occur this past winter, when the wind from the west slowed down and we had a very cold, very wet, winter. He also goes on to explain that the slow jetstream can cause periods of high temperatures as well. It all depends on how the jetstream dips and rises.

Well that makes a little more sense!

Angela Fritz's blog post shows us a serious fracture in the Arctic ice that recently occurred, and why it happened. Freedman and Lemonick then explain to us the vicious cycle that is causing the Arctic ice to melt. Finally, the recent article by Roach presents a theory using the jetstream to explain why we may still have some very cold trends.

I love it when blog posts and articles come together and really shine some light on what is happening with our climate and our world.

Earth Hour - Turn Off Your Lights!

Today (3/23/13) is the day of Earth Hour from 8:30 to 9:30 pm. For that hour people and businesses are supposed to turn off  all their lights. Earth Hour started March 31st, 2007 in Sydney, Australia, with over 2 million participants. The next year saw over 35 countries, and possibly 50 to 100 million people participate in Earth Hour. It has continued yearly, last year 152 countries joined in, and this year hopefully there will be even more countries and people participating. I myself plan to turn off the lights in my apartment for the hour.

Many countries are participating this year, and you can view the different activities using an interactive map. In my area, Jersey City, Nutley, and Bloomfield are encouraging people and businesses to participate in Earth Hour. The Element in New York City will be switching to candlelight in the lobby. There will be a toast to Mother Earth and the proceeds from the bar during the hour will be donated to the World Wildlife Fund.

Germany participated in the event as well. At the time that I wrote this post it was past ten pm and the hour was up. People in Berlin had been invited to gather at the Brandenburg Gate, where the lights were turned off.

Markus Schreiber, The Associated Press

Check out Aruba's Earth Hour Facebook page!

People in countries all over the world are turning off their lights, planting and protecting trees, signing petitions, and helping anyway they can to support conservation.

You can help too! If you are reading this before 8:30 pm on March 23rd, turn off your lights for the hour and spread the word! 

If you read this post too late to participate in Earth Hour 2013 then I urge you to go to earthhour.org to join, or start your own, I Will If You Will challenge.

Nate Coleman from The Weather Network challenged that he would give up meat for a week if 500 people would pledge to eat one vegetarian meal a week for the rest of the year. 

Check out more I Will If You Will - Earth Hour challenges and accept one! 

Sadly, I did not learn about Earth Hour until today, at about 5 pm actually. Luckily, in time for me to turn off my lights and to try to quickly spread the word through this post and social media. Next year, I hope to do more to raise awareness in my area and get others to participate as well.

I hope you will join me in Earth Hour 2013 and next year for Earth Hour 2014!

It's a Twister! It's a Twister!

I find tornadoes utterly fascinating. I expect that it all started with The Wizard of Oz; the 1939 version of course! I watched that movie a lot when I was young; I still watch it. When my sister and I were kids I remember her being freaked out when Dorothy sees Miss Almira Gulch turn into the Wicked Witch while in the twister. This was always my favorite part of the movie.

Then when I was about twelve the movie Twister was released. I fell in love with both the movie and tornadoes in general. There is a certain destructive beauty in these swirling columns of air, dust and debris.

We Got Cows
Twister — MOVIECLIPS.com

Since tornado season is starting I thought now would be a great time to post about these potentially devastating acts of nature.

Once again Climate Central has proven to be a wonderful resource. Here is a short video provided on the organization's webpage: Extreme Weather 101: Tornadoes | Climate Central. Unfortunately, I could not embed the video into this post and couldn't find it on YouTube. I encourage you to check it out though!

I also found an interesting article on Climate Central by Urooj Raja, a research analyst for the organization. Her article What the 2013 Tornado Season Has in Store for the U.S. provides a look into this coming year and helps to explain some of the recent tornado trends.

Two years ago, 2011, had a record number of storms and was very deadly, but then 2012 had much fewer, and less deadly, storms. It seems the drought suffered by states that see high tornado activity helped to suppress the formation of the twisters. Tornadoes spawn from storms, and storms need precipitation. High temperatures and drought means less moisture in the air, so fewer storms. Some areas appear to still have drought conditions, so it is possible that these areas will see decreased tornado activity this season as well.

She also introduces a tornado tracker in her article! How fun!! When you go to the website there is a map and a place to select a date. You can see tornadoes that were confirmed that day, or go back and look for past activity.

Raja brought up one other point that I thought was interesting. She stated that there is no consensus on whether or not climate change is affecting tornadoes. The thought is that since the increased temperatures leads to more moisture in the air that there will be more storms. But, Raja also says that wind shear, which is essential for tornadoes may decrease. So, while there may be more storms due to the moisture in the air, we may see less tornado formation because of the decreased wind shear.

It will be interesting to see what happens this year with tornadoes. We will definitely be coming back to this toward the end of the season to see what occurred and what the experts are now saying.

Adapting To Climate Change

When I was writing and researching my previous post on what we can do to reduce climate change I saw an article that led to writing this post.

Lee Dye wrote an article for ABC News that made me realize that it might be time to start figuring out how we are going to adapt to climate change, since it is here now, and we may not be able to stop it. The article, It May Be Too Late to Stop Global Warming, explains that trying to stop the emission of greenhouses gases in any meaningful way is just not going to stop climate change completely. It does say that we should try the best we can, because even if we can't stop it, we can at least lessen some of the effects. Then when I saw that the EPA has a page dedicated to adapting to climate change, I realized it is something we should discuss.

The EPA page breaks it down by region: midwest, northeast, etc, or by sector: agriculture, coasts, ecosystems, etc. In general, each region will have trouble with high temperatures and either drought or flooding, and coastlines will experience erosion and loss of beaches. I urge you to go to the EPA website and get more details about the area where you live. Below are quick predictions for the sectors.

AGRICULTURE: Crops may be damaged by the extreme heat, floods, and drought. Crops not affected by those factors may actually grow faster due to the higher levels of carbon dioxide and to moderate heat increases in some areas.  If you work in agriculture, or just want more information, please go to this page to learn more.

COASTS: There may be an increase in coastal flooding, erosion, and pollution.  Marine life will be negatively affected by the warmer temperatures and increased acidity.  Storms will occur more often, be more intense, and have more precipitation.  If you live, or work, in a coastal area please check out this page to learn more.

ECOSYSTEMS: Plants and animals everywhere are going to be affected by the change in the climate.  Some will handle it better than others. Species living in the arctic and in the mountains will be hit hardest as they tend to be the most sensitive. If you work with wildlife, or are a nature-lover, please click here for more information.

ENERGY: We will start to see people using more energy in the summer to cool houses and less energy in the winter to heat them.  We may see more power outages due to the rising sea level, and the more frequent and intense storms. Go to this page for more information.

FORESTS: Increased carbon dioxide can lead to increased growth in some areas, but negative effects where there will be increased drought.  Drought and increased temperature will lead to worse and more frequent forest fires.  We may also see more outbreaks of devastating insect activity.  If you work in the forest industry, or live in a forested area please go here for more information.

HUMAN HEALTH: The hotter the temperature means the more ozone that is in the air, which makes it harder to breathe for people with asthma and other respiratory issues.  There will also be an increase in heat-related health issues like heat stroke and dehydration.  Floods, droughts, and storms can also negatively impact health and safety, and there will be an increase in the frequency and severity of all those events.  If you work in the health industry, or are concerned about future health risks, you can find more information here.

INTERNATIONAL: Developing countries will suffer more from the changes than developed countries.  Changes in other countries could actually have an impact on the US's national security, and the security of other nations.  If you are concerned about the effects world-wide or the impact on national security, more information can be found here.

SOCIETY: People who will be affected the most will be the young, elderly, sick, poor, and those living in vulnerable areas.  Cities will affected more than rural areas, as cities absorb more heat and can feel the effects of storms more strongly. I encourage EVERYONE to read more on this topic.

TRANSPORTATION: The increased temperature, severe storms, flooding and storm surge will damage roadways, bridges, subways, railways, and other means of transportation. This is another topic that everyone could benefit from reading more.

WATER RESOURCES: Some areas, like Nevada, will experience an increase in water demand but a shortage in supply.  Other areas, like New York City, will have issues with flooding and the rise in sea level.  The quality of water may decrease as salt water intrudes upon fresh water. For more information on the water resources where you live, click here.

There are many changes coming our way. How severe they will be depends on where you live, and what we have done to mitigate climate change. By lessening greenhouses gases we can make climate change less severe. Right now we need to educate ourselves, so that we can prepare, survive, and hopefully, be part of the solution. Thank you to the US Environmental Protection Agency, and to similar agencies around the world, for providing information and working to protect us and the world we live in.

What We Can Do About Climate Change

Climate Change 

We have discussed causes, effects, and arguments. Now lets take a look at what we can do to limit greenhouses gases and how we may need to start preparing and adapting. 

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

The EPA is a great source for information about climate change, and a source I use frequently.  The site discusses what is being done, like the Clean Air Act, how we may have to adapt to the change, and things  we can do to limit greenhouse gases.  Check out more information on the Clean Air Act .  You can also read up on the steps the EPA is taking.

What We Can Do To Slow Down Climate Change

• Find five lights that you use the most in your home and change them to Energy Star light bulbs.  These bulbs save energy, thus saving the environment and your money! Energy Star has other products as well, like air conditioners, refrigerators, and windows! Check here to find these products near you!
• Make sure your home is properly sealed and insulated. Heat in the winter, and air conditioning in the summer; all that energy and money you spend making your house comfortable could be escaping through unsealed windows or poor insulation.  "Reduce air leaks and stop drafts by using caulk, weather stripping, and insulation to seal your home's envelope and add more insulation to your attic to block out heat and cold".
• Remember your 3 R's? Reduce, Reuse, and Recycle. This wasn't just for when we were kids! We should still be trying to reduce the amount we are using, try to reuse whatever we can, and ALWAYS recycle whenever possible!  This may be the easiest of all the these suggestions, so give it a try!
• Another one we were told often as children: don't waste water! I always thought that was silly; there is plenty of water! Well, turns out its not so much about wasting the water, it's about wasting the energy it took to treat that water, heat it, and then pump it into the shower, bath, sink, etc. So don't let the water run, and consider buying Water Sense products.
• Try composting! You can compost food and yard waste, such as leaves and grass clippings. Check out the EPA's GreenScapes program to help you make the most of composting! If you are really brave, I once knew a guy with a composting toilet!
• There are also steps you can take at the office, on the road, and at school!

I know it is so tempting to say, "what's the point? I am only one person, we are only one household, we can't possibly make a difference".  I sometimes find myself saying that as well. Change has to start somewhere. Why not start with you? You could even start your own blog about it! Spread the word, help your neighbors make the change. Eventually, it could spread through your community. So, what are you waiting for? Pick one of those suggestions above and get started!

Check out my next post for information on adapting to climate change.

Just the Facts, Ma'am

I've posted about the different opinions on climate change, but you may be sitting there wondering, what exactly is climate change?  Good question!

First lets define climate.  Dictionary.com tells us,

1. the composite or generally prevailing weather conditions of a region, as temperature, air pressure,humidity, precipitation, sunshine, cloudiness, and winds, throughout the year, averaged over a series of years.
2. a region or area characterized by a given climate: to move to a warm climate.
3. the prevailing attitudes, standards, or environmental conditions of a group, period, or place: a climate of political unrest.

The first definition is the one that applies to the topic of climate change. Here is how Dr. Heidi Cullen explains climate in her book The Weather of the Future, "weather is concerned with the immediate whereas climate is more focused on the long term."

Basically, weather is the day to day conditions we experience outside, like the things listed above in the definition.  Then climate is those conditions in a larger area averaged out over time.  The short video below from Climate Central, explains more.

NOAA The National Weather Service has a great brochure about climate change that I thought I would summarize for you.

• The climate is changing.  This decade and the last have been the warmest since the start of recording in the mid 1800's.
• Some of the change is natural.  This is because of how the different parts of the Earth interact, the land, the oceans, and the atmosphere. The sun and solar radiation also play a part in the changes. 
• Some of the change is caused by people.  This is where greenhouse gases come into play.
  "Carbon dioxide (CO2) and water vapor (H2O), trap heat in the atmosphere causing a greenhouse effect."
• These gases are released by burning coal, oil, and natural gas.
• 
  

Here are some other interesting facts and tidbits I gathered from the US EPA website:

• NASA and NOAA both agree that climate change is occurring and that humans are playing a role in the change.
• The average temperature has risen 1.4F degrees, which has led to increased rainfall, heat waves becoming more frequent and more intense, warmer and more acidic oceans, and an increase in sea level due to arctic ice melting.
• While the sun does have periods of warming and cooling, it does not appear to have as much of an impact on Earth as human activity.
• A warmer climate does not mean no more cold winters. Actually, the slightly warmer climate means that there is more water up in the atmosphere, which can mean more snow when the temperature does drop low enough.  But, as the climate grows warmer and warmer the length of our winters will grow shorter and shorter, but be snowier and snowier!
• There is a natural carbon cycle, where carbon dioxide is naturally emitted but then also taken back up by plants and put into the ground. Humans burning fossil fuels is not part of this cycle and has thrown it out of whack!
• Yes, the Earth was once warmer than it is today.  But it was still stable back then, and it isn't stable now. It is projected to warm up faster than has ever been recorded. 
• The hole in the ozone, and thinning ozone layer is a negative consequence of human actions.  While it is dangerous, and poses risks to our health, it is not significant to climate change.
• IT IS NOT TOO LATE TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE.

In my next post I plan to address different steps that are being taken to stop climate change.  We will look at different government programs, and what you can do to make a difference.

8 Arguments Against Global Warming

In this post I wanted to take a look at some of the arguments against climate change, or against our role in it as a species.  Some scientists agree that our world is getting warmer, but not everyone agrees on why.  Then there are some that believe the climate is actually growing colder!

Peter Ferrara wrote an article for Forbes.com titled, Sorry Global Warming Alarmists, The Earth Is Cooling, in May of 2012.  His article is about how the Earth is actually starting to cool down, due to naturally occurring temperature cycles. He attended the International Climate Change Conference sponsored by the Heartland Institute, that month, and came to his conclusions after hearing the speakers.  It appears that, not only did he attend, he spoke as well.  Mr. Ferrara is also a director for the Heartland Institute.  This institute considers itself the "international headquarters of the climate realists".

The article states at one point that the oceans undergo a natural process where the colder water deeper in the oceans cycle up to switch with the warmer water.  That then affects the air temperature and can cause it to change by the degrees currently seen.

The article goes on to discuss more but I had to stop reading.  He keeps calling the other scientists alarmists, and accusing them of things like, "personal attacks, ad hominem arguments, and name calling, combined with admissions that they can’t defend their views in public debate".  He doesn't seem to be behaving much better in his article.

So moving on...

One point that keeps coming up in my research is that climate is a confusing issue that we really do not know enough about.  Also, there are other factors involved such as politics and economy.  The video below was posted on Youtube in 2011 and is a news report from Fox Business.  The video presents the idea of global cooling but then adds in economic issues, even mentions "the mob"! Apparently, global warming is better for the economy than global cooling...

Oh boy... I really did want to try to remain impartial and research and write this post with an open mind, but it is getting really difficult.  Kill all the cows because of methane? Really?? I think Vermont (Cow Power!) would have something to say about that!

I think this gives you a pretty good idea of the war that is raging between the two sides. Both sides claim to have science on their side. There are economic issues, political issues, social issues and so much more involved in this topic of global warming/cooling.  Lets break down this "realist" side of the argument with a good ol' fashioned list.

American Policy Roundtable summed up 8 Arguments Against Global Warming from Heartland Institute (and then I summed it up some more):

1. We, the people, are not the cause.  There are scientists that just don't believe there is enough evidence to support the theory that gases released by people are causing climate change.
2. Pffft, you can't prove that it's getting warmer!  There is no temperature data that proves the climate is getting warmer.
3. Computers are puppets.  Predictions based on computer models are not accurate.  People can manipulate the data to make the results say whatever they want.
4. The opposition is reading it wrong.  A report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is often quoted incorrectly by "alarmists". In fact, it should be interpreted to support the "realists".
5. A little warmth might not be bad...   Warmer temperatures + Vikings = Settling of Greenland
   Even warmer temperatures were experienced during the development of the first civilizations. Obviously, warmer temperatures make people want to settle down and work harder. So forget Obama, all we need is a little warming of the climate to boost the economy!
6. It costs too much to fold, so let it ride!  Let us say, for the sake of this list, that gas emissions are causing climate change.  It would cost way too much to try to stop emissions now, and it wouldn't lead to much of a change; just a lowly reduction of .14 degrees Celsius.
7. States will suffer and budgets will burst! States went on shopping sprees in the 1990's and now can't pay their credit card bills. Still, they continue to spend money on frivolous things like, "greenhouse gas reduction programs".  These programs do nothing except waste hard-earned money and take away jobs.
8. Don't live your life with regret!  Why try to stop climate change now? Let's do some research, and then, once the ice-caps have melted, the coral reefs are all bleached, and NYC is under water, THEN let's do something about it! 

Screenshot from The Day After Tomorrow 

Alright, I may have come off as sounding a little biased, but I did try!! If I squint reaaallly hard, some of those points may make some sense.  I know where I stand on the issue of climate change, and am comfortable in my beliefs.  I encourage you to do some of your own research and take a stand.  Even if that stand is on the other side. 

**Update 5/7/13 - I just wanted to make sure that I was clear about my beliefs on the topic of climate change. I believe that climate change is happening. I believe that it is a naturally occurring phenomenon that we have accelerated. I believe that we can still do something about it, but we also need to start adapting to the changes in our climate and weather. 

Guaranteed to Keep You Up at Night...

When I was a kid I always thought the weather was pretty cool. I especially loved learning about lightning at the Museum of Science in Boston, MA. I never considered weather more seriously though, and wasn't even really paying attention to the issue of climate change.

All that changed in August of 2010.

At that time, what I WAS into was, The Colbert Report.  One night that August, Stephen Colbert had a woman come on the show to talk about her new book.  Her name was Dr. Heidi Cullen and her book was, The Weather of the Future: Heat Waves, Extreme Storms, and Other Scenes from a Climate-Changed Planet. 

After listening to her short interview I knew I HAD to read her book!

The Colbert Report
Get More: Colbert Report Full Episodes,Political Humor & Satire Blog,Video Archive

Dr. Cullen was smart, funny, and not only knowledgeable, but able to talk to non-weather people (like you and me), and not leave us going, "uhhhhhh, whaaat?"

Her book made it to my Christmas list that year, but once again, Santa let me down.  I ended up buying it for myself, and had no buyers-remorse.  It was an excellent read.

Dr. Heidi Cullen is a research scientist for a nonprofit organization called, Climate Central.  They actually have some great videos on their site. I have already borrowed one for a previous post, and will definitely be using more in the future.  Dr. Cullen has worked for The Weather Channel, lectures at Princeton, is a member of the American Meteorological Society, has spoken on all sorts of television programs, and my favorite tidbit, lives in Princeton, NJ! All of this information can be found on the back cover of her book.

Her book focuses on climate, climate change, and the possible future of our planet and weather.  She does an exceptional job of explaining what climate change is and how it works.  I did not take any physics or chemistry classes in college, am absolutely horrid at math, and yet I was able to understand the concepts in this book. Not only did I understand the book, but I enjoyed reading it as well!

I certainly can't say that about all the non-fiction books I have read, or have tried to read.

The second part of her book was a look at weather predictions around the world.  One that really stuck with me was about The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in Australia.

















As it turns out the GBR and its beautiful corals are very sensitive to temperature and the acidity of the ocean water.  When the water gets too warm, and it doesn't even have to be that much warmer, the algae that lives in the coral leaves and takes all those gorgeous colors with it. Now you only see the white of the coral itself.  The coral then weakens and can die, because not only does the algae provide colors but also nutrients.  This is called coral bleaching.

The book explains so much more than what that video covers.  Dr. Cullen talks to scientists working with the GBR, and explains how they are working to protect this treasure.  She also predicts what could occur if climate change continues unchecked.

For those of you more interested in issues closer to home she also covers Central Valley in California and New York, New York.  The book was published in 2010 and she actually made this prediction for September 2013, "And in September 2013, with the Yankees not even looking to play in the postseason, the Atlantic Ocean reawakened and one specific hurricane seemed to be in a New York state of mind."

Hmmm, Superstorm Sandy, October 2012? Sure, she was off by little over a year, and her storm was Category 3 Hurricane Homer, but she did predict the flooding.  She even states in her book, "managed to flood the subway as well as the PATH train systems at the station in Hoboken, New Jersey, shutting down these transportation systems for almost a week."  Pretty eerie.  Not all her predictions are worst-case scenario though.  She has NYC learn from the storms and adapt by building storm-surge barriers, raised airport runways, re-zoned coastal areas, and so forth.

Dr. Cullen has been referred to as an alarmist, but honestly, sometimes we need to hear about the worst that could happen.  Will all these tragic predictions come true? Will the coral reefs die, the ice caps melt, and many more plants and animals become extinct? Possibly. We need to be aware of all predicted outcomes, and understand all the possible consequences of our actions.  This book instructs, and opens your mind to possibilities we many not want to consider, but should.

After flipping through the book again to write this post, and looking at the different predictions, I think I am going to give it another read! I highly recommend that you give this book a try too.

Is It Getting Warm In Here?

Climate change, global warming, greenhouse gases, polar ice caps melting... these are all buzz words that we hear tossed around. But what do they mean? Is the climate really changing?

This is is really an extensive topic. There are people who believe that climate change is real, its not good, and we are the cause.  There are people that think the whole thing is a hoax, that its not that big of a deal. Then there are people who may concede that the climate is heating up, but are hesitant to blame it on people.

Let's start with the, "climate change is real and happening", argument. According to the EPA, "Earth's average temperature has risen by 1.4°F over the past century, and is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5°F over the next hundred years".

Oh wow, a couple degrees warmer! That doesn't sound like very much, why is it so important? I mean sure that video up there shows things have heated up, but its still pretty cold in the arctic! And, its still snowing in the north; pretty sure Winter Storm Nemo proved that one...

Well, first the rising of 1.4°F is an average. In some areas, like the arctic regions, that number is actually higher. Second, while we may not think a couple of degrees makes a difference, Mother Nature doesn't agree. Animals such as penguins and butterflies are feeling the effects. National Geographic reports that the number of Adélie penguins have declined.

Say whaaaat?

Species of foxes, butterflies, and arctic plants have been found farther and farther north, trying to find cooler weather. There are some species that are enjoying the warmer weather like the Spruce Bark Beetle. (I was going to post a picture of these, but yuck! If bugs don't give you the heebie-jeebies then go ahead and do a Google Image search, have fun.) These beetles have had a huge increase in numbers and are destroying forests in Alaska.

Animals aren't the only ones feeling the change.  The weather is starting to make a statement too.  In 2008, National Geographic released an article, Strong Hurricanes Getting Stronger; Warming Is Blamed.  Warmer ocean temperatures means stronger hurricanes.  Some scientists believe that climate change is the cause of the warmer temperatures and nastier hurricanes, while others say this is "a natural storm cycle".  But, with a naturally cooler North Atlantic ocean with its typically weak hurricanes, now flinging much stronger storms at the East Coast, it does make you wonder...

According to a nyc.gov hazards web page:

Many hurricane experts say the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico have begun to spin off more frequent and destructive hurricanes than in previous decades. Tropical storms have been on the rise since 1995, and a record 15 hurricanes made their way into the North Atlantic in 2005.

The World Health Organization (WHO) is also concerned.  Heat waves can be extremely dangerous, like the heat wave in Australia early this year that was so extreme, "Australia weather forecasters had to add a new color to their heat maps to show temperatures between 123 and 129 degrees."  (That link leads to a great article, check it out.)

Extreme heat can lead to dehydration, and even trouble breathing for people who have asthma and other respiratory conditions.

The WHO also predicts a rise in sea levels and more extreme storms that will cause people to move away from the coast and other low-lying areas.  This can lead to, "the risk of a range of health effects, from mental disorders to communicable diseases".  The water supply may be affected by drought and changes in when we get rain or snow and how much we get. People don't always realize that a snow-less winter can lead to drought conditions in the summer. Flooding will occur more often in some areas, which can contaminate drinking water, cause injury and death, and even cause an increase in mosquitoes.

Not only are mosquitoes incredibly annoying, but they can also carry diseases such as West Nile Virus.  With the higher temperatures and increase in insect activity, we will continue to see more and more of these viruses, like West Nile and Malaria, over here in the United States.

And the list of changes goes on! I could keep writing this for hours and have the longest blog post EVER! But, I think its about time to wrap this up before I put you to sleep and you have a nightmare.  There is so much more to cover on this topic and I will get there.

Next I want to take a break from all this info, and review a great book on the topic by Dr. Heidi Cullen.

From there we will take a look at the other side of the climate argument and see what other people are
saying on the topic.

I know this is a disturbing issue and some people have strong opinions about it. I urge you to keep an open mind, consider both sides of the argument, and draw your own conclusions... so come back soon!